Serbia's day-ahead power price falls 4.1% to €346.08/MWh as Hungary discount narrows

Wholesale electricity prices fell across most of Southeast Europe for delivery on Wednesday, 11 November, with Greece recording the sharpest drop at 17.2%. Serbia and Montenegro saw much smaller declines, so the discount they had held against Hungary shrank sharply. The figures refer to day-ahead auctions, in which power for the following day is bought and sold on national exchanges.

Prices fall, gaps between markets shift

Hungary's HUPX exchange fell 11.5% to €354.42/MWh. Romania's OPCOM declined 14.1% to €352.56/MWh, and Bulgaria's IBEX dropped 13.4% to €348.74/MWh. Greece's HEnEx cleared at €279.81/MWh, which is €58.10/MWh below Tuesday's level.

Serbia's SEEPEX exchange fell 4.1% to €346.08/MWh, and Montenegro's BELEN exchange fell 2.3% to €345.12/MWh. Hungary's premium over Serbia narrowed to €8.34/MWh from €39.44/MWh. Its premium over Montenegro shrank to €9.30/MWh from €47.08/MWh.

As a result, Serbian and Montenegrin supply lost almost four-fifths of the price advantage it had over Hungary the day before. That comparison does not include transmission charges and losses. Montenegro traded just €0.96/MWh below Serbia, against a €7.64/MWh gap on Tuesday.

The relief was uneven. Albania's ALPEX rose 9.0% to €334.88/MWh, partly reversing Tuesday's steep fall, while North Macedonia's MEMO edged up 0.2% to €350.18/MWh. Albania's highest hourly price climbed to €516/MWh from €431.90/MWh, which shows that local scarcity periods persisted despite the regional decline.

Croatia's CROPEX fell 11.6% to €344.05/MWh, Slovenia's BSP/ADEX declined 11.0% to €342.12/MWh, and Austria dropped 8.1% to €347.60/MWh. Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria now trade within a fairly narrow band of daily averages.

The gap with southern markets widened. Hungary's premium over Greece grew to €74.61/MWh from €62.38/MWh because Greek prices fell faster. Italy's North zone (IPEX) declined 8.0% to €285.20/MWh, which raised Montenegro's premium over that benchmark to €59.92/MWh from €43.05/MWh. Actual returns on Adriatic trading depend on the Italian landing-zone price, available cross-border capacity and losses.

Peak prices eased in the eastern markets. Romania's highest quarter-hour price fell to €441.46/MWh from €571.20/MWh, and Hungary's declined to €472.21/MWh from €562.88/MWh. Serbia's maximum stayed relatively firm at €475/MWh, against €477.99/MWh on Tuesday, while Montenegro's was unchanged at €475/MWh.

Supply conditions differ by country

Operating data for the last completed day, 10 November, show contrasting situations. Serbia's average net imports fell to about 612 MW from 789 MW on 9 November, while wind output rose to 365 MW from 118 MW. Bosnia and Herzegovina's net exports increased to about 193 MW from 102 MW.

Hungary moved the other way. Its net imports rose to about 2,100 MW from 1,635 MW, and demand increased to 6,155 MW from 5,883 MW. Solar output dropped to about 80 MW from 285 MW. The cheaper Wednesday auction therefore followed a day on which Hungary relied more heavily on imports.

In Romania, reported nuclear output averaged zero on 10 November, compared with about 317 MW the day before. Net imports rose to about 1,981 MW from 1,629 MW, and consumption increased to 6,867 MW from 6,608 MW. The lower auction price does not show that Romania's domestic supply shortfall has been resolved.

Romanian nuclear restart and Greek outlook

Nuclearelectrica, the Romanian nuclear operator, said in a disclosure on 10 November that Unit 2 of the Cernavodă plant was expected to reconnect to the grid on 11 November, with nominal output forecast for 12 November. For Unit 1, the company estimated two to four days of repairs, followed by reconnection and restart procedures. These are forecasts, and a completed reconnection had not been confirmed when the source article was prepared.

Greece had stronger renewable output on 10 November. Solar production averaged about 1,357 MW, up from 632 MW, and wind rose to 1,133 MW from 797 MW. Gas-fired generation fell to about 3,799 MW from 4,349 MW.

For 11 November, the Greek grid operator IPTO forecast average renewable output of about 4,204 MW, with a peak of 8,606 MW, and an average load of 5,484 MW. These are forecasts, not measured generation. Such a profile makes export access, storage charging and possible curtailment at midday important operating questions.

Measured physical flows from Greece on 10 November showed net exports of about 14,849 MWh to Bulgaria, 10,224 MWh to North Macedonia, 4,117 MWh to Albania and 4,552 MWh to Turkey. Recent comparable operating data for Montenegro and consistently converted Turkish wholesale prices were not available.

What the data does not show

No negative-price intervals appeared in the reviewed day-ahead series for 11 November in Serbia, Montenegro, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia, Albania, North Macedonia or Italy's North zone. Greece's lowest price rose to €164.63/MWh from €0.01/MWh, even though its daily average fell.

Comparable trading volumes, intraday volume-weighted prices and settled balancing costs were not available. The data also does not establish which specific transmission constraints explain the remaining price gaps between countries.

For traders, the main change is that Serbia's and Montenegro's discounts to Hungary have largely disappeared, while both remain well above Greek and Italian prices. For buyers and investors, lower averages, continued expensive intervals and an uncertain Romanian nuclear restart call for close attention to delivery profiles, transmission access and flexible capacity. One cheaper auction brings some procurement relief, but it does not show that supply pressure in the region has ended.