Day-ahead power prices in Serbia and Montenegro stayed near €345/MWh on 11 November, supported by record regional net imports of about 5.5 GW even as prices fell from the previous session.
- Serbia settled at €346.08/MWh and Montenegro at €345.12/MWh, falling far less than Romania, Greece, Bulgaria and Hungary.
- Regional net imports rose to 5.49 GW, covering about 15% of electricity demand, with major flows from Austria-Slovakia and Italy.
- Serbia acts as both a deficit market and a transit corridor, while Montenegro passed on cheaper Italian power to neighboring Balkan markets.
- Greece (HENEX €279.81/MWh) and Italy (€270.91/MWh) remained far cheaper, highlighting a fragmented regional market.
- December forward prices stayed high at about €247/MWh in Hungary, pointing to continued winter price risk.
Day-ahead electricity prices in South East Europe fell back on 11 November from the previous session's spike, but the regional market stayed tight. Net imports into the region rose to almost 5.5 GW. Serbia and Montenegro held close to €345/MWh, even though power was much cheaper in Italy and Greece.
Regional prices: Serbia and Montenegro fall least
Hungary remained the most expensive major market at €354.42/MWh. Romania followed at €352.56/MWh, North Macedonia at €350.18/MWh and Bulgaria at €348.74/MWh. Serbia settled at €346.08/MWh, Montenegro at €345.12/MWh, Croatia at €344.05/MWh and Slovenia at €342.12/MWh.
Most markets dropped sharply from the day before. Prices fell by €57.8/MWh in Romania, €58.1/MWh in Greece, €53.9/MWh in Bulgaria and €45.9/MWh in Hungary. Serbia's decline was only €14.8/MWh, and Montenegro's was €8.1/MWh. As a result, both countries stayed expensive compared with markets to the south and west.
The Greek exchange HENEX fell to €279.81/MWh and the Italian national price to €270.91/MWh. Germany traded at €316.65/MWh. The spread between Hungary and Greece widened to about €74.6/MWh, while Hungary stayed roughly €37.8/MWh above Germany. Albania was one of the few markets to move the other way, rising €27.7/MWh to €334.88/MWh.
Regional balance: imports cover about 15% of demand
Combined consumption in the region was approximately 36.1 GW. Net imports rose by almost 1 GW from the previous day to 5.49 GW, which covered about 15% of electricity needs. Flows from the Austria-Slovakia side into the Hungary and South East Europe system reached around 4.32 GW. Flows from Italy towards the region were about 1.27 GW.
The source analysis concludes that the price correction was driven mainly by better access to western electricity and softer demand, rather than by a real improvement in regional generation.
Serbia: imports and transit at the same time
The Serbian power exchange SEEPEX settled at €346.08/MWh, down only about 4% day on day. Peakload, the price for the highest-demand hours, was €398.9/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €293.3/MWh. The daily maximum was €475/MWh and the minimum €243.1/MWh.
Consumption averaged about 4,424 MW, while domestic generation was around 3,780 MW. That left net imports of roughly 644 MW.
The cross-border picture was more complex than that figure suggests. Serbia imported power from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro, while exporting to Romania and, on average, to Hungary. Exports to Romania were about 488 MW on a baseload basis. Imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina were around 439 MW and from Croatia about 303 MW.
According to the analysis, Serbia therefore acts not only as a deficit market but also as a transit and arbitrage corridor between western Balkan generation, the Bulgarian-Romanian system and Hungary. The smaller fall in SEEPEX prices compared with Romania and Bulgaria also narrowed some eastern price gaps and reduced the short-term incentive to import into Serbia from those markets.
Montenegro: Italian power flows on to neighbors
Montenegro's exchange BELEN fell €8.1/MWh to €345.12/MWh, almost level with Serbia and Croatia, while Italian prices were about €74/MWh lower. Consumption averaged about 368 MW and generation about 307 MW, so net imports were only around 62 MW.
The gross flows were much larger. About 598 MW came from Italy towards Montenegro on a baseload basis. At the same time, Montenegro exported roughly 204 MW to Serbia, 134 MW to Bosnia and Herzegovina and 59 MW to Albania, along with other regional flows. In effect, the undersea cable between Italy and Montenegro brought in cheaper Italian electricity, which was then passed on to higher-priced Balkan markets. With Italian power at about €271/MWh against Montenegro's €345/MWh, the price gap across the Adriatic remained commercially significant.
Greece: the low-price market
Greece was the other low-priced hub. HENEX at €279.81/MWh was roughly €66/MWh below Serbia, €65/MWh below Montenegro and nearly €75/MWh below Hungary. Greek generation was about 7.43 GW against consumption of 5.60 GW, leaving exports of around 1.83 GW.
The analysis says the contrast with Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro shows a fragmented regional market. Large price differences can persist between well-connected markets when transmission limits and congestion in one direction prevent prices from converging.
Forward prices point to winter risk
Forward contracts give a more cautious signal than the falling day-ahead prices. Hungarian power for Week 47 eased to €243.50/MWh and for Week 48 to €247/MWh. The December contract rose €7/MWh to about €247/MWh. That is well below current spot levels but still high by historical standards.
The December forward spread between Hungary and Germany stayed around €46/MWh, which suggests the market still prices in a structural premium for south-eastern and central-eastern Europe in early winter. Fuel and carbon costs gave little sign of relief: December gas was around €87/MWh, EU carbon allowances near €88/t and December coal around $132/t.
The analysis describes the 11 November session as a correction from very high spot prices rather than the start of a looser market. Higher imports from the west have capped prices for now, but high import needs, persistent price gaps between countries and expensive winter contracts leave Serbia, Montenegro and the wider region exposed to generation availability and interconnector limits.
For more developments, see the latest news section.
Frequently asked questions
Why did power prices in Serbia and Montenegro stay high on 11 November?
Prices stayed high because the regional market remained tight, and the fall in spot prices was driven mainly by imports from the west and softer demand rather than by improved domestic generation.
How much electricity did the region import on 11 November?
Net imports into the region rose to about 5.49 GW, covering roughly 15% of electricity needs across a combined consumption of about 36.1 GW.
Why are Serbian and Montenegrin prices higher than in Italy and Greece?
Italian and Greek prices were much lower, but transmission limits and congestion prevent prices from converging across the region, so large gaps can persist between connected markets.
What role does Serbia play in the regional electricity market?
Serbia is a net importer, but it also acts as a transit and arbitrage corridor, importing from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia while exporting to Romania and, on average, to Hungary.
What do forward prices suggest about winter electricity costs?
Forward contracts point to continued winter risk, with Hungarian December power at about €247/MWh, well below current spot levels but still high by historical standards.
